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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."